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Depends on the movie type. If it's divx/xvid you can use virtualdub fast recompress, but it will still take some time.
I don't know much about tmpgenc as I don't do mpeg1/2.
Cutting the credits and start-stuff out usually saves like 3-8% of size.
However, if you're really doing mpeg1/2 (tmpgenc suggests so), you only need to worry about the minutes, not the MB. So, that movie should fit fine on a vcd/svcd.
-M
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