Defining the resistance in Iraq

[ClubMed]

Defining the resistance in Iraq - it's not foreign and it's well prepared

Iraqi resistance shows skill beyond mere band of thugs

Interesting articles, one of the points that’s starting to become noticeable is that the Iraqi army did not surrender, it melted away.

In the days before the US army entered Baghdad, Al-Sahaf, the famous Iraqi Information minister who was disseminating propaganda, did mention interesting things as well. One of them was that the regime would adopt unorthodox and revolutionary methods of resisting the invasion, although guerrilla warfare is nothing new, I believe that for a regime to melt away and lure the enemy closer is quite an interesting concept.

Could this be part of the unorthodox counter-invasion campaign?

[J-Excel]

I highly doubt the entire Iraqi army are now the guerrilla fighters. I'm sure there were a few Saddam loyalists in the military that are participating. There are probably a few too that aren't loyal to Saddam, but just hate westerners. And there are no doubt some foreigners.

The guerrilla attacks so far have been a nuisance. The new Iraqi government is being constructed and there will be new leadership, then the US will pull out. The attacks might slow it down a little, but they won’t stop it. If the guerrillas want the US out of Iraq quicker they’d be better off not fighting, but rather helping to build a new Iraq.

I wonder what percent of Iraqis support the guerrillas and what percent support rebuilding Iraq.

[shahani]

I'm not sure how strong US resolve will be to continue in Iraq in the face of daily casualties. It is all very well for the Military and Politicians to show conviction and firmness.

But reality is sometimes very different and with election looming next year, I would not be surprised at anything.

[M_Six]

The new Iraqi government is being constructed and there will be new leadership, then the US will pull out.

And that'll be when the fun starts. The US may be forced to keep a large force there to support the new government. If we pull out entirely, the government will be gone in less than a year.

[shahani]

This was bound to happen when you go invading countries without any plan.

In the hurry to shoot up Iraq, Bush went in too fast, alone, and with no thought to afterwar plans.

Now its all gonna catch up.....

But, I agree, this is a very long term commitment of resources and US lives and will not get over next fall.

And, unfortunately, even after all the sacrifices, Iraqis will still hate the invaders.

[MTAtech]

'The guerrilla attacks so far have been a nuisance.'

A nuisance? Unless you or someone you know was 'annoyed' by a road bomb, should fired missile, etc.

[shahani]

Well, you gotta expect the Military to play it down.

Looks bad if they admit its growing into a serious resistance.

Right?

[ClubMed]

Originally posted by M_Six


And that'll be when the fun starts. The US may be forced to keep a large force there to support the new government. If we pull out entirely, the government will be gone in less than a year.

No government that was installed by a foreign power in the Middle East survived after the foreign troops pulled out. If anyone in the US administration has had access to a good historical education about the Middle East they will know this.

After the Americans pull out of Iraq, no matter what shape Iraq is in at that time, there will be a reorganisation of the political spectrum to reflect not only the national political and ethnic camps but also their strengths and weeknesses.

[Epidemic]

probably true there club.

But then again no foreign power ever installed a people friendly government. Usually they supported dictators and such. Perhaps the Iraqis will find a human rights based government more then another dictator or authoritarian theocracy.

Of course the likelyhood is years of instability and tightening of restrictions due to the few crazys blowing themselves up. In the end it may be a very restrictive government which becomes unpopular with the people. The terrorists do have the upper hand for sure. They need only keep the government fearful and restrictions will be put in place which make life worse.

I still say the UN and US should maintain a presence in Iraq for a minimum of 10 years (better if 20) Long enough for old school people to die off and new open minded to take power.

My plan would be very restrictive for the first few years to maintain order and over the next 20 years roll restrictions back until your desired government is achieved.

Year 1 - 2 International troop strength at 300,000 Martial law, curfews, and papers at check points, controlled speech (media and riots strictly controlled)

Year 2 - 4 International troop strength down to 150,000 limited free speech, lifting of some travel restrictions, and media allowed to print with relaxed censorship

Year 4 - 6 International troop strength down to 50,000 Freedom to assemble, freedom of movement, media freedom to speak as they choose except for unfounded stories.

year 6 - 10 ...

Year 15 to 20 International troops pull out entirely. People freed to choose a new form of government if desired. Democracy, theocracy,... what ever they want. If after 15 to 20 years they find themselves unable to live in a democracy then it is up to them. They obviously have given it a fair shake and it is not working out.

[Mike]

Originally posted by M_Six


And that'll be when the fun starts. The US may be forced to keep a large force there to support the new government. If we pull out entirely, the government will be gone in less than a year.

That's what I was thinking.

Epidemic: That looks wonderful on paper, don't you think it'd be harder to make sure that's how it goes?

The U.S. will have to stay there. Look at what's happening in Afghanistan. It takes time to re-build a country, and the government. Afghanistan is slowly being taken back by warlords and rebels.

I don't expect anything different while in Iraq. It'll only be a matter of time...

I still don't believe Bush, or any of his cronies, when they say that the attacks are getting more desperate. desperate? They are showing organization, coordination of the attacks. They aren't looking very desperate.