North Korea Says It Has a Program on Nuclear Arms

[Theophylact]

From the New York Times:

WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 — Confronted by new American intelligence, North Korea has admitted that it has been conducting a major clandestine nuclear-weapons development program for the past several years, the Bush administration said tonight. Officials added that North Korea had also informed them that it has now "nullified" its 1994 agreement with the United States to freeze all nuclear weapons development activity.

North Korea's surprise revelation, which confronts the Bush administration with a nuclear crisis in Asia even as it threatens war with Iraq, came 12 days ago in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. A senior American diplomat, James A. Kelley, confronted his North Korean counterparts with American intelligence data suggesting a secret project was under way. At first, the North Korean officials angrily denied the allegation, according to an American official who was present.

The next day the North Koreans acknowledged the nuclear program and according to one American official said they, "have more powerful things as well." American officials have interpreted that comment as an acknowledgment that North Korea possesses other weapons of mass destruction.

Administration officials refused to say tonight whether the North Koreans had acknowledged successfully producing a nuclear weapon from the project, which uses highly enriched uranium. Nor would administration officials who briefed reporters say whether they think North Korea has produced such a weapon.

"We're not certain that it's been weaponized yet," said another official, noting that North Korea has conducted no nuclear testing, which the United States could easily detect.

The idea of a North Korean nuclear arsenal immediately alters the delicate nuclear balance in Asia and confronts the Bush administration with two simultaneous crises involving nations developing weapons of mass destruction: one in Iraq, the other on the Korean Peninsula.

"We seek a peaceful resolution to this situation," a senior administration official said tonight, briefing reporters as news of the North Korean program began to leak. "No peaceful nation wants to see a nuclear-armed North Korea."

Yet the administration's demands on North Korea tonight were muted. "The United States is calling on North Korea to comply with all of its commitments under the Nonproliferation Treaty and to eliminate its nuclear weapons program in a verifiable manner," an American official said. There was no discussion of the consequences if that appeal was ignored, even though the announcement came only hours after President Bush issued some of his toughest and most ominous-sounding warnings yet to Iraq.

Mr. Bush said nothing about North Korea today. Instead, the State Department dealt with the issue tonight through a statement issued by Richard A. Boucher, the state department spokesman, and through briefings by midlevel officials. Mr. Boucher said Mr. Kelly and Under Secretary of State John R. Bolton had been dispatched "to confer with friends and allies about this important issue." He also said, "This is an opportunity for peace-loving nations in the region to deal, effectively, with this challenge."

At a meeting on Tuesday of the National Security Council, Mr. Bush and his aides decided to handle the North Korean declarations through diplomatic channels, a senior official said.

Japan and South Korea, which is now in the midst of a presidential election campaign, both wanted to avoid confrontation, according to several officials.

But American officials said that there was no early indication that North Korea would admit inspectors or give up its program. One senior official characterized the North Korean attitude at the Pyongyang meeting as belligerent, rather than apologetic, even while it admitted violating the 1994 accord to freeze its nuclear weapons development.

The strongest action the administration announced tonight was the cessation of talks that could lead to economic cooperation. "The United States was prepared to offer economic and political steps to improve the lives of the North Korean people," Mr. Boucher's statement said, "provided the North were dramatically to alter its behavior across a range of issues," including its weapons programs, its past support for terrorism, and "the deplorable treatment of the North Korean people."

But in deciding on a very measured response, the White House was also implicitly recognizing the reality of how North Korea differs from Iraq. It may already have nuclear weapons, and it has a huge army and conventional weapons capable of wreaking havoc on South Korea.

Moreover, even the prospect of military action against North Korea, conducted at the same time the administration is considering an attack on Iraq, would mean that the Pentagon would be confronted by the prospect of fighting a two-front war. ...

While ground has been broken on the project, the reactors have yet to be delivered, and now that agreement appears dead, officials said tonight.

Around the time that the Clinton administration negotiated the 1994 accord, the Central Intelligence Agency estimated that North Korea's nuclear weapons facilities at Yongbyon, a program that was based on reprocessing nuclear waste into plutonium, had already produced enough material to manufacture one or two weapons.

If the North Korean assertions are true — and administration officials assume they are — the government of Kim Jong Il began in the mid- or late-1990's a secret, parallel program to produce weapons-grade material from highly enriched uranium. That does not require nuclear reactors, but it is a slow process that the United States may have discovered through Korean efforts to acquire centrifuges. That is also the process that the administration believes the Iraqis are undertaking.

"We have to assume that they now have the capacity to build many more weapons, and they may have already," said a senior official who has seen the intelligence.

It was unclear today why North Korea admitted to the weapons program. ...

But one official who was in the room on Oct. 4 when the North Korean deputy foreign minister, Kang Sok Joo, described the existence of the nuclear program, said, "I would not describe them as apologetic."

The administration's decision to keep news of the North Korean admission secret for the past 12 days while it fashioned a response appears significant for several reasons. Mr. Bush and his aides have clearly decided to avoid describing the situation as a crisis that requires a military response at a time when dealing with Iraq is the No. 1 priority.

"Imagine if Saddam had done this, that he had admitted — or bluffed — that he has the bomb or is about to have one," one senior official said. "But there's been a decision made that the system can take only so much at one time."

In other words, Saddam Hussein, who doesn't yet have nuclear weapons, and won't unless he can get the U-235 from somewhere else, is going to get hit with a preemptive strike. But Kim Jong Il, the second member of the Axis of evil, who either already has nuclear weapons or can make them from fissionable material he has on hand, not only isn't going to get hit, he isn't even worth mentioning. Why?

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to figure this one out.

[osprey4]

Here's the difference. Kim Jong Il has not employed chemical weapons on his own people. Nor has he launched an unprovoked attack on a neighbor and attempted to torch that country out of existance.

How hard is it to obtain fissionable material? If North Korea can do it, anybody can.

It should also be mentioned that prior to the 1994 agreement with N. Korea, a preemptive strike was contemplated by the government.

[ClubMed]

I'm sorry I disagree JnMHayes.

This is simply the internal political game, there is too much going on behind the scenes to be able to pinpoint why one evil person is prosecuted while another is ignored.

But usually it's deals that save one and kill another.

As bad as it sounds, and I apologize at the outset, the real reason is Koreans are not Arab Moslems. This is a harsh and a carte blanche statement. But I believe it is true.

Seen from a post 9/11 perspective, there has been such a groundswell of negative sentiment the world over, that even the sniper attacks are being blamed on "olive-skinned Mid Eastern man" (last nite on CNN).

North Koreans can be testing small pox and anthrax but nothing's gonna happen to them.

Saddam throws a cigarette outa his car and the world will jump on him.

[shrae]

Well, there are a significant number of differences between Hussein and Kim - one of the most important of which I believe JnMHayes already touched on. Kim has not shown the capacity of using weapons of mass destruction, nor has he shown the desire to expand North Korea into an Asian empire. I can assure you, that had in 1990 N.Korea invaded S.Korea, the US intervened, etc. etc. and today N.Korea admitted a weapons of mass destruction plan that had successfully created nuclear material, there would no doubt be a preemptive strike.

Kim is certainly no good guy, but he sort of pales in comparison to Hussein... defected bodyguards seem to agree that Kim is more concerned about his hunting trips, luxurious mansion life, extravagant meals, parties, and of course ladies, than anything else. But Kim just seems the typical dictator, with all the general evil inherent. Sure, Hussein also lives lavishly and does the same ol' dictator act, but he's been on record many times saying that he wants to be remembered in history forever for being the one to recreate the Islamic empire, sometimes indicating that he wants to be second to only those in the Koran. He's much more concerned about himself and so determined to become a fixture of history, that this makes him far more dangerous than Kim could ever be.

But quite frankly, the biggest difference between the two nations is this: North Korea today is in a state where it can sucessfully wage modern warfare against a number of opponents. (They've been this way for many years, really.) Iraq was a pushover, with insufficient logicistics support, nonexistent networking of war systems, nonexistent redundancy among military systems, and a non-self-sufficient military (not to mention one that was simply not dedicated to supporting its leader) among so many other deficiencies. North Korea does not have ANY of these problems. For many years, North Korea has been capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction to a number of targets on the Earth. And they have not. A pre-emptive strike on N. Korea is simply not warranted and could lead immediatly to nuclear war.

An action only becomes a threat when there is a means and a motive. Neither alone is sufficient, and in my opinion, a motive is far more dangerous. Korea has not proven that they want to take militaristic actions further than the same games the Chinese Communists play.

I think we also have to keep in mind that North Korea has been off the "states-harboring-terrorists" list for quite some time now, and as recent as 9/20 of this year, the Bush administration conceded that N. Korea may not belong on the list of "Axis of Evil" (source: Japanese PM). Additionally, N. Korea has taken many steps in the last few months regarding reconciliation (which starts with admitting) of past events. The fact that North Korea is willing to admit openly and publicly such information (including this recent disclosure) significantly reduces the threat level. I, personally, do not believe North Korea poses a substantial threat to general security - not in the US or the world.

Kim is certainly no good guy, but he sort of pales in comparison to Hussein... defected bodyguards seem to agree that Kim is more concerned about his hunting trips, luxurious mansion life, extravagant meals, parties, and of course ladies, than anything else.

C'mon, that sounds like several past US Presidents. All rulers are hedonistic. Almost all. It's the power thing.

[Theophylact]

Just for starters: Kim has been starving his people to feed his enormous army (some estimate 10% of the population has died of starvation); he's been sending subs with saboteurs to infiltrate South Korea; he's just admitted to kidnapping Japanese civilians to train spies in the Japanese language; he's "test-fired" missiles over Japan; and now he admits to violating a nuclear-weapons agreement.

Talk about Saddam Hussein invading his neighbor: ever heard of the Korean War? It's not over, either -- it's just a long-standing ceasefire. That's why the US has so many troops in South Korea.

No, I think the real point is that North Korea has weapons of mass destruction. We don't want to call their bluff because it's not a bluff.

That and they are not from the Middle East.

[J-Excel]

This isn't exactly breaking news that N. Korea has nukes. U.S. Intelligence has known since the mid-90's and hasn't done squat about it. The big news here is that they openly admit it.

I think it would be smart not to interfere in other countries' nuclear/space/technology programs unless they ask. No sense getting in a tight corner.

Every country has top secret programs of its own. Just like the US and European countries.

Poking around will only get everyone defensive and nothing will come out of it. GWB had better focus on the economy or we are all going to see very tough years ahead. This Iraq/korea distractions are just that: distractions.