After we beat Saddam Hussein -- then what?

[Theophylact]

Before we go to war, let's consider what happens when we win, as no one seems to doubt we will. This fascinating article by James Fallows in next month's Atlantic magazine should be required reading.

[vass0922]

Hmmm
Are there any nice places we can conquer?
We can never have a war and make them nice people in a country where people want to go on vacation.

"Hey hon, want to go on vacation in afghanistan or iraq? I hear the desert is beautiful this time of year!"
Ummmm not likely... some people yes! Myself no
WWI and WWII don't count
Ok korea maybe considered a vacation spot.. so nothing before vietnam.

The US taxpayer will pay for:

1) Years of peacekeeping forces
2) Billions in shuffling rock there as in Afghanistan
3) Billions to reconstruct the dump
4) Ad hoc governments to take charge

In return what will we get:

1) Possibly cheaper oil- but don't we already get cheap oil from many other places. We won't get free oil thats for sure.

2) Possibly less terrorist attacks. But what about Saudi Arabia where terrorists come from mostly

3) Sense of "getting even" by GWB - who has a vendetta

4) Can't think of anything else.

What did we get from Afghanistan?

[vass0922]

Ok a more serious answer...
Say we do topple saddam..
How long will we have to stay there?
I would think that would largely depend on how much faith the country has in whatever leader we put in place and if we can keep the poor guy ALIVE without being assassinated. (wouldn't want to be him!)
We'll probably put in a pawn so he can get shot, make everybody happy and then put in a real leader.
Do we do the whole give them a constitution thing as well?
It WILL take time and $$$$ for all of this to work out. I don't know where Mr. Bush is going to squeeze it out of. HEY I know a great place! Education! Social Security!
Ok say one year, we pull out we're happy with the country...
How long then, does it take them to backstab us and turn against us again?
Considering the amount of rage in that entire area against americans could they really have a country there that likes us?
I'm guessing not.
If we weren't totally supporting Israel they'd be in line with the rest of them to terrorize us

[Chuckiechan]

When Sadam is gone and the people create a government with our guidance, they will be able to sell oil in the world market at market rate. These funds will go into the treasury to finance schools, government, roads, utilities, and refineries. All of this takes manpower and creates jobs which create peace-time economies.

Yes the US will buy their oil, and the US will insure their freedom by sharing power among the factions. This will be easier than Afganistan because there isn't as great of a problem of warlords to deal with. (Note: in Afganistan, they are gradually being made "deals they can't refuse" to behave or die. Notice not a puff of press about "warlords" since the last assination attempt?) These boys are a dieing breed over there!!

When Iraq's oil production gets up to normal capacity, prices may drop a little but not much.

Lot of ifs and whens there.

[Knothead]

An excellent thread, Theo. Excellent link, too....

"The most experienced military figure in the Bush Cabinet, Secretary of State Colin Powell, was cast as the main "wet," because of his obvious discomfort with an effort that few allies would support. His instincts fit the general sociology of the Iraq debate: As a rule, the strongest advocates of pre-emptive attack, within the government and in the press, had neither served in the military nor lived in Arab societies."

Yep. Nothing scares me more than some 73-year-old politician who's willing to die for his country.

[Knothead]

And Shahani's comments were quite well-pointed, and absolutely on the mark, IMO:

Originally posted by shahani
The US taxpayer will pay for:

1) Years of peacekeeping forces
2) Billions in shuffling rock there as in Afghanistan
3) Billions to reconstruct the dump
4) Ad hoc governments to take charge

What did we get from Afghanistan?

I'm starting to detect an international political "game" here, one that preys on the good nature of the American people, is cynically manipulated by the politicians ON BOTH SIDES of the debate, and is paid for in the blood of the people at ground zero.

Politics as usual.

[kenyg]

Afganistan was the beginning of the war on terror. The government in Afghanistan sheltered and supported Al Qaida. There was nothing to 'gain' from the war in Afghanistan other than perhaps more peace of mind.

Iraq? - I think the case has been made. I think Saddam's regime needs to go. I would like to see the Iraqi people decide.

I've stated before and will again - the governments of the middle east are mostly monarch's or presidents-for-life. Where's all the oil money go? Into armaments and palaces. It's convienent to tell the population living in squalor that its the wests fault.

I think in the long run - we get less of a threat against us.

Who's next? - perhaps the people supplying the money to buy the bombs the suicide terrorists are strapping around their waists.

No one else will step up to the plate, not the UN - until Dubya issued his ultimatim - Iraq was fully prepared to go another 25yrs ignoring UN resolutions - I don't think there will be a full scale war - but Saddam's days are numbered.

[LinuxNewbie]

well here's the real deal:
-arabs hate america, not just 1 leader
-extremists gain power in desperate times/countries such as iraq
-iraq will just have a new leader who hates the US
-no gain.

so basically, ya might as well just send over a huge carpet bomb mission then leave and wait for the next anti - US guy to come along, there's no short supply keep in mind

the hardest thing about the Iraq situation is that all those arab countries are so old school that they will never be allies of the civilized countries.... usualy countries that have been defeated and are helped back up turn into good friends such as Japan and Germany.... Afghanistan may be a friend because they are finaly getting help with having a STABLE government..they're doing it right this time. Iraq and the entire surrounding area just HATE the US because the US supports the jews and the arabs hate jews... this will never end. all we can do for now is kill all opposition when a possible threat comes up.